Examining Watanagashi-hen alone, when the culprit admits to the conclusion Rena comes up with in her deduction, that particular deduction is "complete". That means the deduction that marks "XX as the culprit" was "accurate at that moment in time". And then in Meakashi-hen, we are suddenly given a lot of new information that weren't present in Watanagashi-hen. So appropriately, the fact that "the true culprit is someone else" can be easily understood.
http://community.livejournal.com/witchhunters/5724.html
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